VolRC RAS scientific journal (printed edition)
RuEn

Journal section "Territorial finance"

Conservative Monetary Policy as the Most Important Constraint on Economic Growth

Povarova A.I.

6 (86), 2016

Povarova A.I. Conservative Monetary Policy as the Most Important Constraint on Economic Growth. Problems of Territory's Development, 2016, no. 6 (86), pp. 180-195

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The crisis observed today in the Russian economy actualizes a comprehensive analysis of the real situation and demands finding ways for overcoming negative trends. Certain measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation in the framework of an anti-crisis plan, will not solve the existing problems, the totality of which, in our opinion, is largely reduced to the failure of Russian monetary policy. Since the beginning of market reforms, monetary policy in Russia has been governed by the requirements of the International Monetary Fund and is based on its monetary dogma, according to which the increase in the money supply causes an increase in inflation. The results of the analysis of the dynamics of the key components of monetary policy refuted this dogma, primarily on the grounds that Russia has underestimated the normal money supply, and monetary inflation cannot take place. The shortage of liquidity resulted in 2011-2014 in a slowdown, and in 2015 – in the fall of all macroeconomic indicators. Conservative policy pursued by the Bank of Russia, undermining financial sovereignty and blocking the economic growth is contrary to the objective of economic security set out by the President of the Russian Federation. Instead of creating internal sources able to meet the needs of the country in economic development, the banking system has become the main channel for lending to foreign economies, as evidenced by the escalation of exported capital by banks and concentration of banking assets in offshore jurisdictions as well as in the countries that have declared the sanctions war against Russia. The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of monetary policy on economic development. The main conclusion is that in a deteriorating domestic economic situation complicated by external political and economic factors, the current monetary policy does not meet the strategic objectives of advancing economic growth and requires immediate correction. The author systematizes and proposes priority measures in this direction. The study is based on the official data of the Bank of Russia, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, Federal State Statistics Service, World Bank, International Monetary Fund

Keywords

economic growth, investment, lending, interest rate, inflation, monetary policy, bank of russia, monetization, capital flight, external debt

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