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14.04.202104.2021с 01.01.2021
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Journal section "Sustainable development of territories, branches, and production complexes"

Two-Stage Assessment of Major Transport Projects in the Far East

Tarasova O.V., Pankova Y.V.

2 (100), 2019

Tarasova O.V., Pankova Yu.V. Two-stage assessment of major transport projects in the Far East. Problems of Territory's Development, 2019, no. 2 (100), pp. 67–79. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2019.2.100.4

DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2019.2.100.4

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The article analyzes the current state of the Far Eastern ports of Russia and emphasizes their role in the development of the country’s foreign trade. The industry’s investment projects and prospects for maritime transport in the region are discussed in the context of intensifying interaction with counterparties from the Asia-Pacific Region. Various opinions on the possibility and necessity of attracting investment resources from abroad for implementing transport projects strategically important for Russia are given. The purpose of the study is to conduct comprehensive assessment of effects of foreign financial participation in major projects for the development of the maritime transport infrastructure in the Russian Far East. It is suggested to use two-level modeling of investment projects, the advantage of which is the ability to assess both direct and indirect effects for different economic agents. The quantitative estimates of effects were obtained using the models of national economic and project levels using the example of simulating the project for the development of transport infrastructure in the Russian Far East – Samarga international transport corridor. The port infrastructure development scenarios in the macroregion are developed and formed depending on the sources of financing. It is demonstrated that raising foreign funds for the resulting 2030 increases the country’s gain taking into account net present value of business, federal and regional budgets. However, according to the assessment calculated for the optimization inter-sectoral interregional model of the national economic level, the effect in terms of final consumption in the country as a whole is negative. The study can be further elaborated through the development of methods for comparing the size of these effects in value terms

Keywords

russian far east, sea port, investment project evaluation, effects forecast, national economic evaluation, simulation model