VolRC RAS scientific journal (printed edition)

Journal section "Life quality and human potential of territories"

Birth Rate of the Komi Republic Population: Factors, Trends, Prospects

Popova L.A.

Volume 26, Issue 6, 2022

Popova L.А. (2022). Birth rate of the Komi Republic Population: Factors, trends, prospects. Problems of Territory's Development, 26 (6), 77–93. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2022.6.122.5

DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2022.6.122.5

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
Birth rate decline, which caused a new stage of natural decline in Russia’s population, actualizes research in the field of fertility. The article examines the birth rate dynamics in the Komi Republic, changes in its structure by the age of the mother, the order of birth and mother’s marital status in urban and rural areas during the birth rate decline period of 2016–2020 and the preceding period of growth of 2000–2015, and assesses the factors causing them. We have carried out the research on the basis of Rosstat and Comistat official data and the results of several author’s sociological surveys of reproductive attitudes. We have used statistical and sociological methods, dynamic and comparative analysis, methods of conditional and real generation. We have established that a significant excess of the average Russian birth rate in the republic in recent years is the result of the implementation of the regional maternity capital program, the introduction of a third child allowance for low-income families, as well as the revival of ethnic characteristics of reproductive behavior among the indigenous population in conditions of economic stimulation of large families. Birth rate decrease in 2016–2020 is determined by a decrease in the birth rate of the first and second order, the birth rate of the third and higher order continues increasing both in the city and countryside. In urban areas, there is birth rate decrease in all age groups, in rural areas – only in young ones. Thus, the differentiation of age-related birth patterns in urban and rural areas, where the third births always occurr at an earlier age, is not so much preserved as modified by higher-priority births. In the near future, the improvement of the age structure of women of reproductive age will begin, which will lead to the transition of birth rate stabilization to an increase in its level. Its scope will be limited by a significant exhaustion of the final childhood of older generations and low reproductive attitudes of young cohorts. It is necessary to repurpose economic measures of demographic policy to second births


komi republic, reproductive attitudes, fertility, natural population growth, birth order, Komi Republic, age coefficients, illegitimate births